January 12, 2016
US pork exports gain momentum in Nov.; beef exports rebound
US pork exports continued to gain momentum in November while beef exports also showed signs of a rebound, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF).
November exports of US pork were up 8% from a year ago to 181,678 metric tonnes, the largest volume since May. Pork export value, however, was down 13% to $452.6 million from a year ago but up slightly from October. As has been the case in recent months, pork muscle cut export volume was up significantly year-on-year (148,740 metric tonnes, up 19%) while variety meat exports declined 23% to 32,938 metric tonnes. (USMEF said year-on-year comparisons for pork variety meat may not be entirely accurate due to issues with 2014 data for Japan.*)
For the first 11 months of 2015, pork exports were down 3% from a year ago to 1.94 million metric tonnes and 17% lower in value at $5.11 billion. January-November exports accounted for 24% of total production and 21 percent for muscle cuts only – down from 27% and 22%, respectively, in 2014. Export value per head slaughtered averaged $48.61, down 23% year-on-year.
Demand for US pork remained strong in Mexico, and exports to China continued to rebound, USMEF noted.
November pork exports to Mexico reached 61,275 metric tonnes, up 15% year-on-year and the third time in 2015 that monthly export volume topped 60,000 metric tonnes. January-November exports to Mexico were up 5% to 650,839 metric tonnes. Export value was down 20% to $1.15 billion, reflecting lower US prices, but the Mexican peso was down an average of 16% in 2015, largely offsetting any break in pork prices for Mexican customers.
With several US pork plants regaining eligibility for China near the beginning of November, exports to the China/Hong Kong region were the largest of 2015 at 33,462 metric tonnes, valued at $65.6 million. While trailing the performance of 2011-2013, these results were up 41% in volume and 9% in value from November 2014.
For January through November, exports to China/Hong Kong remained 2% lower in volume (305,365 metric tonnes) than a year ago and were down 11% in value ($632.9 million). With strong growth from the European Union, China/Hong Kong's total imports through November reached 1.7 million metric tonnes, up 7% from a year ago.
After cooling to some degree in the previous two months, November pork exports to South Korea reached 13,172 metric tonnes, the largest volume since May and up 5% year-on-year. For the first 11 months of 2015, exports to Korea were up 27% in volume (153,421 metric tonnes) and 11% in value ($433.8 million). Korea's imports from all suppliers were up 28% to nearly 450,000 metric tonnes, with US market at 32%.
Exports to leading value market Japan continued to struggle in November, pushing the 11-month total down 13% year-on-year in volume (374,720 metric tonnes) and 18% lower in value ($1.46 billion). While demand for US chilled pork has rebounded in Japan, these gains have been offset by lower volumes of frozen pork and ground seasoned pork. With increased competition from the European Union, US market share dipped to 39% in 2015 from 44% in 2013. However, Japan's frozen inventories of imported pork recently fell 26% below the previous year's large volume, indicating potential for import growth in 2016.
Beef exports
November beef exports totalled 95,799 metric tonnes, down 1% from a year ago but the largest volume since June, while export value fell 17% to $519.7 million. For January through November, beef exports were down 11% from a year ago in both volume (973,028 metric tonnes) and value ($5.8 billion). January-November exports accounted for 13% of total production and 10% for muscle cuts only--each down 1 percentage point from a year ago. Export value per head of fed slaughter averaged $279.12, down 6% year-on-year.
Beef exports gained momentum in most Asian markets, but decline continued in Japan, according to USMEF.
November beef export volume increased year-on-year to several key Asian markets, including:
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Exports to Korea, which increased 8% in volume (11,950 metric tonnes). Value fell 21% to $69.4 million. For January through November, exports were up 7% in volume (114,869 metric tonnes) but down 3% in value ($741.1 million). Korea's imports of chilled US beef were up 40% through November, with US market share gaining 6 percentage points to 30.6%.
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Exports to Hong Kong, which was the largest of 2015 at 14,478 metric tonnes, up 2%. Value fell 30% to $79.6 million. For January through November, exports to Hong Kong were down 22% in volume (106,876 metric tonnes) and 29% in value ($720.7 million).
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Exports to Taiwan, which were up 16% in volume (2,685 metric tonnes). Value was up 13% ($25 million). January-November exports were up 4% in volume (32,175 metric tonnes) and 10% in value ($290.3 million). US beef dominates Taiwan's chilled imports, with 66% market share.
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Exports to the Philippines, which surged 192% to 1,401 metric tonnes. Value increased 35% ($5.4 million). January-November exports were up 5% in volume (11,868 metric tonnes) and 11% in value ($60.3 million).
Japan was the notable exception to the positive November trend, with exports declining 21% in volume to 14,515 metric tonnes and 31% in value to $94.4 million. Through the first 11 months of the year, export volume to Japan fell 15% to 190,751 metric tonnes. Although Japan is still the leading value market for US beef, export value declined 19% to $1.19 billion. Japan imported less beef from all suppliers in 2015, and still has large frozen inventories of imported beef weighing on the market. But the US lost market share to Australia in 2015, with US share dropping from 38% to 35%, USMEF noted, explaining that this was due in part to Australia's 10 percentage point tariff advantage following implementation of the Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement in January 2015.
November beef exports to leading volume market Mexico increased 3% year-on-year to 19,582 metric tonnes, while value dipped slightly to $86.9 million. For January through November, exports to Mexico were down 8% in volume (201,046 metric tonnes) and 5% in value ($994.5 million).
Exports to Egypt, a key market for beef livers and other variety meat, increased by 33% in volume (10,700 metric tonnes) and 25% in value ($14.4 million) in November. Through the first 11 months of 2015, exports to Egypt were down 14% in volume (96,867 metric tonnes) but increased 5% in value to $143.1 million.
"November offered some encouraging signs for US meat exports, though the results were certainly not at the levels we would like to see," said USMEF President and CEO Philip Seng. "Despite the weak peso, Mexico continues to be a very strong performer for US pork, and our beef exports to Mexico have also held up fairly well. Exports to most Asian markets are showing upward momentum, but clearly the need to defend and expand our market share in Japan has never been greater."
