January 4, 2018

EU pig meat production steady until 2030, says outlook report

EU pig meat production is expected to increase slightly in the next few years, but decline back to 2017 levels by 2030, according to the latest EU agricultural outlook covering 2017-2030.

EU meat consumption per capita is expected to stabilise before declining slightly, following a recovery since the economic crisis. The marginal forecast increase in pig meat production, therefore, will be solely driven by export demand, said the report, released in December 2017.

Environmental issues surrounding pig meat production are also likely to remain, predominantly concerning manure management, the outlook report added.

The outlook suggests significant differences in production trends between member states - EU pig meat production is expected to decrease by less than 1% by 2030 in the EU-15, while increasing by almost 7% in the EU-N13. EU-15 refers to the original members of the EU (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom), while EU-N13 refers to the additional members that entered the union in 2003, 2007 and 2013: Cyprus, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Malta, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia.

Although encouraging feed prices should support production moving toward 2030, stabilising EU consumption and competition on the world market is expected to limit growth. EU prices are expected to stay firm over the outlook period, closely following changes in the world market, although price competition with the US and Brazil will be sustained.