Four of the top five exporters are shipping less corn than two years ago but amid a bumper US harvest and bulging inventories, markets will stay soft. Although the world has entered a period of cheap, plentiful inputs, in the case of corn, today's prices reflect yesterday's news.
Ultra low old crop supplies and a record shattering harvest leads to wide trading spreads. With large coincident soy, rapeseed and palm harvests on the way, oilseeds prices will soften. Soybeans have fallen 31% in three months and it currently trades near US$10.40/bushel, slightly below levels last seen in late 2011. Moreover, while exceptionally tight pre-harvest US inventories supported prices through the first nine months of 2014, market support will begin disappear shortly after this article is published.