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  • Brazilian beef: Bright export potential, stagnant domestic prospects
  • • Helped by a 38% currency plunge, Brazilian exports will replace most of the 300,000 tonne drop in Australian beef shipments • Over half of the 10%, 170,000 tonne export increase is from higher shipments to China and Russia • An optimistic 7% annual export growth forecast is counterbalanced by stagnant domestic market • To achieve its export potential, Brazil needs a resumption of rainfall and a large corn harvest to make up for last year's excessive feed exports
  • America's cattle market cycle turns, but longterm growth will endure
  • • After a three-year boom, high finishing weights induced a steep 40% price crash • Lower cattle prices, higher pasture rents are partly offset by lower feed costs, greener pastureland • Herd expansion will continue at a slower pace • Rising beef production will push out imports, boosting exports as herds shift to northern states
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