Excellent weather, record crop yields imply looming oversupplies of corn and soy. Harvest time will be deflationary but higher costs for land, fertilizer and fuel have jacked up price floors. As this article's title says, barring any unexpected changes in weather, 2014 is turning out to be a perfect year for America's corn and soy crops.
Policies that favour expensive corn and cheap pork are changing the type of agribusiness inputs that China chooses to import. Although the demand dynamics of China's vast agribusiness market have grown as expected, the feed-to-meat supply chain components appear to be developing in a different manner than was forecast.