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December 27, 2016


Vietnam hog prices rise in November


An eFeedLink Exclusive

 


Price summary


Hog prices generally rose in November.

 

Procurement price of live hog over 80kg (Expressed in VND 1,000/kg)

 

W1

W2

W3

W4

Dong Nai

39000

40000

39000

37000

Binh Duong

38000

43000

43000

42000

Can Tho

39000

40000

41000

41500

HCM

40000

41000

42000

42500

Hanoi

40000

40000

41000

41000

(VND1,000 = US$0.044 as of November)

 


Market analysis


Due to floods in the central region of Dong Nai at the end of October, the transportation of pigs to China could not be made. The Chinese market also reduced their imports from Dong Nai, at times causing a sharp drop of live hog prices to the range of VND35,000 (US$1.54) to VND37,000 (US$1.63) per kilogram. However, when China recently re-imported live hogs, prices at times rose to the range of VND39,000 (US$1.71) to VND41,000 (US$1.80) per kilogram. At current prices, small farms just break even, while big farms show little interest. As calculated, farmers will profit if live hog prices rise up to VND42,000 (US$1.82) per kilogram. Live hog prices in Dong Nai seem to be ultimately dependent on the Chinese market. In the last week of November, live hog prices dropped by the range of VND1,000 (US$0.04) to VND2,000 (US$0.09) per kilogram compared to the previous week due to traders stopping their exports of live hogs to the Chinese market. According to data from the Dong Nai Livestock Association, the average daily sale of Dong Nai's farms for traders to bring to China is about 2,000 pigs (weighing between 120-140 kilogram per head).


Based on data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, as of November Vietnam’s pig herd was about 29.1 million head, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year.

 


Market forecast


Learning from their experiences from last year, farmers are not too dependent on the Chinese market this year. Live hogs are sent to the local market when they hit 90 kilograms. And even though the Tet holiday (to fall on Jan 28, 2017) is approaching, live hog prices are not predicted to make a big move for December.

 


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