MLBA12: December / January 2010
China's livestock industry: Low performance this year; slow pick up next year
Meanwhile, hog prices for the first half of 2009 were estimated to maintain at RMB12/kg. However, the actual price fell to RMB9.79/kg due to the outbreak of AH1N1 in April this year. As it was initially called swine flu, consumers were uninformed that they would not contract the virus through the consumption of pork. Consequently, hog prices fell sharply during that period of time.
Profits in the broiler sector were at relatively low levels in 2009, which was the same as last year's prediction.
For next year, Shi Tao anticipates a rise in China's hog inventory due to the better quality and larger volumes of sows. However, hog producers may face a decline in rearing profits or even incur losses as pork demand may not rise that fast. Nonetheless, the hog sector will maintain its upward momentum as the major companies continue to expand their slaughtering and meat processing operations.
Meanwhile, the broiler industry will see limited large-scale expansions as the future demand and rearing profits remain unstable. Price wise, broiler is comparatively higher than pork, which may further hamper the development of the sector.
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