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November 24, 2016

Vietnam hog prices fall before Tet holiday
 
An eFeedLink Exclusive
 

Price summary

Live hog prices were down in October.
 

Procurement price of live hog over 80kg (Expressed in VND 1,000/kg)

 

W1

W2

W3

W4

Dong Nai

40000

40000

39000

37000

Binh Duong

41000

40500

39000

36500

Can Tho

39000

39000

38000

36000

HCM

43000

42000

41500

39000

Hanoi

44000

42000

41500

40000

(VND1,000 = US$0.045 as of October)

 
   
Market analysis

The price of live hogs in the southern region dropped slightly amid signs that import demand from China is slowing down. Accordingly, live hog prices in An Giang and Dong Nai were down in the range from VND1,000 (US$0.044) to VND3,000 (US$0.132) per kilogram since the first week of the month.

At the current price levels, many farms have no plans to expand their herd for the Tet holiday (end of January 2017). While household consumption is expected to be high then, consumption at canteens of the industrial zones and schools is expected to plummet due to workers and students going home for the Tet holiday.

According to data from the General Statistics Office, Vietnam's pig herd is however estimated to increase 3.7 to 4% compared to the same period last year.
 

Market forecast

According to the Dong Nai Livestock Association, due to their experiences in the past few years, farmers in Dong Nai province are no longer massively increasing their herd size before the Tet holiday as before. However, supplies for Tet is still very abundant, since in the past three years, raising pigs had been profitable, with herd sizes in the province increasing significantly.

However, live hog prices are expected to fall to a low level from 2017 after a hot growth cycle. In fact, prices are falling down earlier than expected.

For pork meat products, as demand is heavily dependent on the Chinese market which is generally seen as unstable, farmers are feeling unsafe when looking towards the market at the end of the year.
 


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