eFeedLink - Vietnam live hog prices on uptrend, led by ASF concerns

Market Reports

October 31, 2018

Vietnam live hog prices on uptrend, led by ASF concerns

An eFeedLink Exclusive

Price summary

Live hog prices rose sharply in September.

Procurement price of live hog over 80kg (Expressed in VND 1,000/kg)
	W1	W2	W3	W4
Dong Nai	49,000	50,000	52,000	53,000
Binh Duong	49,000	49,000	52,500	53,000
Can Tho	49,000	49,000	51,000	52,000
HCM	49,000	52,500	53,000	53,000
Hanoi	50,000	53,000	54,000	54,000
(VND1,000 = US$0.0043 as of September)

Market analysis

In September, live hog prices were on a downtrend since end August, until the 10th of the month. Afterwards, prices increased sharply across the country due to a supply shortage and the influence of African swine fever occurring in Poland and Hungary which led to meat import issues from those two countries.

The south showed good performance in terms of the price increase. Live hog prices in many regions reached VND50,000 (US$2.14) per kilogram or above. In particular, in some provinces such as Tan Uyen, Trang Bom and Gia Kiem, prices were even up to VND53,000 (US$2.27) per kilogram.

The north saw the highest price increase across the country with a range of VND51,000 (US$2.18) to 54,000 (US$2.31) per kilogram, up VND2,000 (US$0.086) to 3,000 (US$0.13) compared to the beginning of the month.

In comparison, prices in central provinces were the lowest at a range of VND47,000 (US$2.01) to 50,000 (US$2.14) per kilogram.

According to a report from the General Statistics Office, in September, farmers were motivated to increase production which led to an increase of 1.8% of the swine herd compared to last year. Pork output is estimated to hit 2.7 million tonnes, down 0.3% compared to last year. In the third quarter of 2018, pork output reached 834,200 tonnes, up 2.8%.

And according to report from some farmers, the sow herd is expected to jump 11.5% compared to the same period of 2017.

Based on data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the value of pork exports in the first eight months of 2018 hit US$28.9 million, down 51.4% compared to the same period of last year.

Market forecast

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development set a production target of 325,000 tonnes of pork in October. The swine herd is expected to increase significantly as farmers are preparing for the year-end demand and for the Tet holiday (to fall in February).