MLBA16: August / September 2010

 

 

 

 

A usually vibrant business, the hog industry nowadays is - in an apt description - in a lull. Following a tumultuous 2009, the country's biggest livestock sector has taken severe beatings from the dreaded diseases and the wrath of climate change. From ebola reston virus which derailed the country's first foray to exports, the misinformation of AH1N1 with its common name "swine flu" has made everybody fear the Filipinos' favourite meat and the aberrant series of typhoons which devastated the major livestock area of Luzon, it is understandable that the generally lively swine trade is still at a stage of trying to pick up the pieces.

 

Sure enough, the slowdown is evident in the government's forecast of pork supply and demand this year. According to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, there was a surplus in pork supply of about 9,050 tonnes in the first quarter of 2010. On the average, there is an expected net deficit of pork supply in 2010 as the expected volume for the second, third and fourth quarters of 2010 will most likely post deficits of about 30,000 tonnes and 13,410 tonnes respectively.

 

BAS also added that if the annual supply realises its lower forecast and the average annual demand prevails, there will be a net deficit of 98,870 tonnes. Even if supply reaches its upper forecast given an average pork demand, BAS concluded that deficits are still expected for the second and third quarters of 2010 while the last quarter projects a surplus which will be seen in the third and fourth quarters given the upper forecast in supply and lower forecast in demand.