August 10, 2012
Eastern Australia's 2011-12 wheat Harvest Pool estimates rose at AUD5 (US$5.26) per tonne for APW1, with adjustments to other grade spreads as well, has been announced by CBH Grain on August 9.
CBH Grain Head of Pools Bryce Banfield said US, Russian, Australian and Chinese weather concerns are the main catalyst for the recent wheat rally.
"The heat wave in the US is currently providing the greatest deal of concern, with corn seen as the crop that is currently under the biggest threat," he said. "Lack of rain is also impacting yields in the Black Sea region and is increasingly a focus for Australian production.
"While the wheat Harvest Pool hedging mandate is almost at completion, our portfolio strategy has increased the optionality to provide downside protection whilst allowing upside participation. Should the market continue to rally, we'll aim to position this protection at higher levels.
"Our foreign currency hedge strategy remains a measured accumulation of cover over time. Recently the pool took advantage of the dip in AUD/USD to protect against potential moves higher and the pool is now in a favourable position against currency appreciation. We will look to add cover at beneficial levels whilst the AUD/USD remains within the current range and re-assess the view on a breakout in either direction.
"We are still forecasting the wheat harvest pool to be fully sold and finalised in late March 2013."