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July 4, 2007


US Crop Progress Wrap: Corn unchanged while soybeans gain



US corn and soybean crops saw little change in condition ratings in the week ended July 1 from the previous week, the US Department of Agriculture said Monday (July 2) in its weekly crop progress report.


US corn conditions were unchanged, with 73 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition despite beneficial rainfall in the eastern Midwest.


"We had a lot of moisture last week, and I think the general feeling is we still have some dry areas to contend with," said Don Roose, president of US Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.


Illinois made big condition improvements, gaining 10 percentage points at 79 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition. Indiana also improved, adding 6 percentage points with 55 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition. The two states are among the biggest corn producers in the US. 


Kansas saw a decline of nine percentage points to 64 percent good-to-excellent condition, and Iowa saw a decline of two percentage points to 76 percent good-to-excellent condition. Both states are suffering from too much water, Roose said.


Silking progress is ahead of average at 13 percent of the crop in that stage, up from the five-year average of 9 percent.


Roose expects the report to be a little supportive to the market as it comes following an 11-day run of lower Chicago Board of Trade prices.


The weather forecast for the western Midwest calls for scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday then mostly dry conditions through the weekend with temperatures near to above normal, according to DTN Meteorologix on Monday (July 2) morning.


The eastern Midwest is expected to be mostly dry with scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday and temperatures near to above normal.


The Midwestern 6-10 day outlook expects temperatures near to above normal and near-to-above-normal rainfall in the north, with near-to-below-normal rainfall in the south.


Meanwhile, the USDA reported a two-percentage-point gain in soybeans nationwide, with 68 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition. Blooming is also up at 19 percent, versus 6 percent last week, 17 percent last year and 13 percent for the five-year average.


"They're relatively high on a historical average," said Dale Durchholz with Agr Visor.


Kentucky gained 11 percentage points with a 61 percent good-to-excellent condition rating, Illinois gained eight percentage points with a 63 percent good-to-excellent condition and Indiana gained three percentage points with 46 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition.


Minnesota lost four percentage points, with 72 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition. Roose expects developing drier conditions to put the northwestern Midwest on the "watch list."


Durchholz expects the report to be neutral for Tuesday's CBOT prices as soybeans are a later summer crop.


"The yield on the bean crop is made or broken in the month of August," he said. "Nothing here was terribly significant."


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