April 19, 2012
Russia may lift grain exports to 28 million tonnes
In the next agricultural year (from July 1, 2012), Russia's grain exports might reach 28 million tonnes, the general director of analytical company LLC ProZerno, Vladimir Petrichenko, said at the IV Grain Conference in Novosibirsk on Wednesday (Apr 11).
He said that total exports depend on results of intervention purchases and the amount of crossover grain reserves at the end of an agricultural year.
Petrichenko said that Russia should export 26 million tonnes of grain for the current agricultural year (between July 1, 2011 and June 30, 2012). Therefore, exports might increase in the next year by 7.69%.
"The current season will be a record compared to all previous season. Next year might turn out even more active," he said.
Petrichenko said that wheat remains the main export commodity. "Basically, this is wheat of course. Barley is stable and corn is increasing," he said.
At the same time, the price for Russian wheat at the end of the current season might come to US$250 per tonne. "I am looking at a figure of US$250. This is the end of the season, at the end of June-July," Petrichenko said, adding that prices at the start of next seasons might increase, either smoothly or sharply, all the way until December when Argentinean and Australian grain reaches the world market.
According to international experts, total production of wheat in the world in the current agricultural year will be a record 694 million tonnes. "This won't happen in the new year. There will be a decrease to 680-681 million tonnes because of Ukraine where crops were poor in the winter, as well as decrease in the EU where there is poor weather, drought, and loss of winter crops. Also, it will decrease in Australia from 29 million to 25 million tonnes," Petrichenko said.
He said that wheat output in Russia and the US is expected to increase while consumption should go up slightly.