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January 25, 2017
 
Vietnam hog prices remain low before Tet
 
An eFeedLink Exclusive
  
    
Price summary

Live hog prices remained low before the Tet holiday. 
  

Procurement price of live hog over 80kg (Expressed in VND 1,000/kg)

 

W1

W2

W3

W4

Dong Nai

36000

37000

36500

37000

Binh Duong

38000

37000

37000

37000

Can Tho

39000

38000

39000

37000

HCM

41000

42000

41500

41500

Hanoi

40000

41000

39000

39500

(VND1,000 = US$0.044 as of December)


Market analysis
 
At this time last year, live hogs were sold at good prices due to high demand from food processing enterprises purchasing fresh meat products for the Tet holiday and Chinese market. The trend is not so this year when prices are at a low level in the range from VND37,000 (US$1.64) to VND 41,500 (US$1.84) per kilogram. In recent days, although traders have begun to purchase hogs in Dong Nai to export to China, prices are still at a low level. Besides the market disequilibrium, price differences between local and imported meat are causing local producers to lose out.
 
According to the Dong Nai Livestock Association, at present, live hog prices depend entirely on Chinese traders, and trading prices remain much lower than the production cost. Chinese traders have also been responsible for fluctuations in live hog prices.
 
Overall, in the past 12 months, live hog prices have seen more volatility. From the beginning of 2016 until the middle of May, the market was in an uptrend due to both Chinese and domestic demand. However, in the middle of May 2016, China abruptly stopped importing hogs to strengthen quarantine control for food items, causing hog prices to decline. Specifically in Dong Nai, after peaking at VND53,500 (US$2.37) per kilogram in May, prices have currently dropped to VND37,000 (US$1.64) per kilogram due to excess supplies of local produce and imported meat.
 

Market forecast
 
According to the Department of Livestock, due to overall growth of the livestock sector in 2016 seeing the highest growth rate in 10 years at more than 5%, meat supply in 2017 should be fairly plentiful, estimated at about a few million tonnes for all types. However, supply exceeds demand. If the Chinese continues to restrict imports, it is inevitable that farmers will suffer losses. To prevent this scenario from happening, the Dong Nai Livestock Association called for farmers to sell hogs of under 100 kilograms per head. With about 6,000 hogs sold each day, this will significantly reduce local pork production.
 


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