After the hyperinflation of 2007 and deflation of 2008, China swine inventories, prices and profits are set to rebound. However, a slowing economy, fatter hogs and bigger farms mean that the market rally will be muted.

Prepare for higher prices and shortages. Financial panics are making grain prices ignore underlying market fundamentals. Key inputs are following credit conditions rather than actual supply and demand. Such confusing market signals could lead to large supply shortfalls within one or two growing seasons.